Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2081…daff other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,000 (+1%) realized +$1,000 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,058per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$22
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$749
politics 34% −$54
sports 15% +$433
culture 5% −$9
world 2% +$22
crypto 1% −$200
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 +1.5% -8.2% 8% 3% -8.4%
all 124 -2.2% -11.5% 22% 15% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 15% -8.9%
10% -20.0% 14% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 12% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,631) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$10 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized+$1,000
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,058
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $812 $812 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,667 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,089 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6,903 −$7 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,389 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,415 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,158 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,909 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $413 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $1,906 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,345 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $996 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,744 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,819 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,537 −$4 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,882 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,255 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $515 −$1 -0%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $1,358 +$463 +34%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,579 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,750 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,587 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3,427 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,475 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,355 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3,318 −$3 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,433 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $2,404 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $1,110 +$917 +83%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 05 $32 −$5 -15%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $967 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $589 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $590 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $812 27h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,087 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 3d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,079 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,081 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,098 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,100 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,387 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,389 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,414 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,415 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,192 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,193 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,498 14d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,501 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $903 14d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $905 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $890 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,005 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,006 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $609 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $609 17d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $701 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.04 · official $812.04 (match) · 375 history records