Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x2082…fdff sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+1%) realized +$105 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%73W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$306
other 17% −$94
crypto 5% −$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 45% -8.2%
≤30d 69 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 45% -8.2%
≤90d 69 -9.1% -17.8% 61% 45% -8.2%
all 163 -5.3% -14.3% 45% 36% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 36% -8.2%
10% -22.5% 26% -17.0%
15% -30.0% 17% -25.0%
20% -36.9% 14% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses73 / 90
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage255d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 88¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 81¢ 98¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $200 +$17 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 −$2 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 +$32 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 −$12 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $301 −$22 -7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $190 +$23 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $47 +$3 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$19 +37%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $60 +$13 +21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $201 +$19 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $60 −$10 -17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $100 +$11 +11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 −$49 -49%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$9 +13%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$11 +11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $401 +$7 +2%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $151 −$47 -31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $674 +$251 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $45 −$44 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $151 −$130 -86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $148 +$11 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $150 +$9 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $151 +$19 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$18 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$20 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$60 +196%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $77 +$22 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$37 -9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $77 −$77 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $201 41m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 44m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Over 79¢ $98 46m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $50 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $133 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $48 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $50 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 85¢ $279 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $212 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $301 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $53 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $50 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $47 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $130 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $69 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $220 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $60 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $101 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $201 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.69 · official $251.51 (match) · 328 history records