Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2087…1219 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,953 (-56%) realized −$2,953 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%31W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$3,114
politics 21% +$7
world 1% +$1
sports 1% +$15
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 14 -6.9% -15.7% 93% 0% -18.2%
all 39 -10.1% -18.7% 79% 21% -63.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 21% -63.8%
10% -26.5% 21% -67.3%
15% -33.6% 13% -70.5%
20% -40.1% 5% -73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$392 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$2,953
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses31 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage209d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 Jun 26 $141 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, May 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 03 $140 $0 +0%
Will Le Sserafim release a song in 2026? Apr 23 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr Apr 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr Apr 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Mar 30 $110 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 28 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 24 $120 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 20 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 20 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 Mar 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 3 to Marc Mar 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Mar 07 $5 +$2 +39%
Will China record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Mar 07 $60 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $5 $0 +6%
Kraken vs. Canucks Jan 27 $5 +$6 +127%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 27 $16 +$9 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 1? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-28? Jan 01 $7 +$3 +41%
Will Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Jan 01 $7 +$3 +37%
Will AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? Jan 01 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Pisa SC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Dec 28 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Dec 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-27? Dec 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-27? Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Dec 24 $12 +$3 +28%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $2,972 −$2,972 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $142 1h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 SELL No 99¢ $144 41h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26 BUY No 97¢ $141 4d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 10d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 25d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 46d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $27 46d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, BUY No 100¢ $120 52d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, BUY No 100¢ $13 52d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 56d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 59d
Will Le Sserafim release a song in 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 65d
Will Le Sserafim release a song in 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 73d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 83d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $62 85d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to Apr BUY No 100¢ $78 85d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March SELL No 100¢ $110 89d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 24 to March BUY No 99¢ $110 92d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March BUY No 100¢ $91 96d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $120 100d
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY No 99¢ $90 103d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 97¢ $37 105d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March BUY No 100¢ $100 109d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 BUY No 100¢ $60 113d
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 3 to Marc BUY No 100¢ $60 113d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $60 139d
Will China record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 142d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 151d
Kraken vs. Canucks BUY Kraken 44¢ $5 176d
Grizzlies vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 65¢ $16 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.79 · official $141.79 (match) · 74 history records