Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2088…c3d9 world 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$3
sports 11% −$4
other 11% −$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 47% 7% -9.3%
all 47 -4.4% -13.5% 34% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 2% -10.1%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage468d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $147 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $124 −$4 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 18 $8 $0 -2%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $0 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 28m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $9 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $33 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $26 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $28 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 162 history records