Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x208a…441e sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$512 (-2%) realized −$114 · open −$398
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$480est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$571
14 days+$1,217
30 days+$1,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$542
other 12% −$1,323
crypto 1% −$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +29.7% +17.3% 60% 60% +13.3%
≤30d 7 +23.0% +11.3% 57% 57% +19.6%
≤90d 67 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 45% -11.7%
all 67 -9.9% -18.5% 45% 45% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -11.7%
10% -26.3% 45% -20.2%
15% -33.4% 45% -27.9%
20% -39.9% 43% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$504 vs −$430 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$398
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$480
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage84d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ $400 $2 −$398 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $507 +$473 +93%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $547 −$540 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 +$352 +172%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $710 +$587 +83%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $307 −$300 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $509 −$500 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1,019 +$1,145 +112%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $307 −$300 -98%
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5 May 01 $265 −$265 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $209 −$205 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 May 01 $508 +$513 +101%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5 May 01 $1,014 +$822 +81%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $306 +$479 +156%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $508 −$500 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 Apr 30 $507 +$402 +79%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 30 $508 −$495 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $509 −$500 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Apr 29 $507 +$386 +76%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $507 +$473 +93%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $307 −$300 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $607 −$600 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $500 +$698 +140%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $500 +$298 +60%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5 Apr 27 $500 −$492 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Apr 26 $500 −$493 -99%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $400 −$392 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 Apr 26 $500 −$492 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $500 +$448 +90%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 25 $500 −$492 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $500 +$485 +97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $500 +$505 +101%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $400 +$472 +118%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $150 −$147 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 24 $500 −$491 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $500 +$569 +114%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 Apr 24 $300 +$456 +152%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $500 +$643 +129%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $500 +$485 +97%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 23 $500 +$505 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 22 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $500 −$488 -98%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 Apr 18 $500 −$493 -99%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $600 −$593 -99%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $500 +$448 +90%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $500 +$643 +129%
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Apr 14 $500 −$493 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $500 −$492 -98%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 10 $500 +$457 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $407 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $547 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $204 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $710 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $509 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $2,164 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,019 18d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 48d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 48d
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $105 50d
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $56 50d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Magic 41¢ $209 50d
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $41 50d
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $56 50d
Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5 BUY Yes 53¢ $7 50d
Celtics vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 84¢ $785 50d
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 50d
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 50d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 44¢ $508 50d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 32¢ $306 50d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 BUY Under 49¢ $508 50d
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 SELL Under $13 51d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 40¢ $509 51d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 51d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 24¢ $307 51d
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 49¢ $508 51d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 51d
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.33 · official $2.33 (match) · 108 history records