Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208c…6b98 sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,628 (-8%) realized −$15,435 · open −$193
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%42W / 43L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,382per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1,682est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7,554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62,051
7 days−$45,642
14 days−$14,167
30 days−$14,690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$28,683
other 40% +$11,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -43.6% -48.9% 32% 32% -46.8%
≤30d 63 -10.2% -18.7% 49% 49% -16.9%
≤90d 85 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 49% -17.4%
all 85 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 49% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 49% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 49% -25.3%
15% -32.3% 49% -32.5%
20% -38.9% 44% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$2,426) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,957 vs −$2,316 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$7,554
Realized−$15,435
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses42 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,682
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage38d
Avg bet$2,382
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 70¢ $5,047 $5,129 +$82 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 48¢ $2,700 $2,425 −$275 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2,992 −$2,992 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 20 $4,270 −$4,270 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6,748 −$6,748 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 20 $7,439 −$7,439 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7,092 −$7,092 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 20 $5,475 −$5,475 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $8,465 −$8,465 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7,095 −$7,095 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 20 $12,367 −$12,367 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6,694 +$3,056 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,451 −$2,413 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,029 −$2,014 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $6,379 +$4,863 +76%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,106 −$1,094 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,420 −$2,386 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7,749 +$11,251 +145%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,962 +$1,688 +86%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $7,272 +$4,747 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,334 +$1,666 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,598 +$1,902 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,365 −$1,365 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8,334 +$4,166 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 14 $547 −$540 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,142 +$1,036 +91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2,173 −$2,146 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12,808 +$13,034 +102%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2,426 +$1,324 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,610 +$6,140 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6,983 +$7,642 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,880 +$820 +44%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $811 +$689 +85%
Albirex Niigata vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $811 +$706 +87%
FC Gifu vs. Gainare Tottori: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $812 +$820 +101%
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Nara Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $813 +$885 +109%
Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,112 +$614 +55%
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Kōchi United SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $813 −$800 -98%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $581 −$573 -99%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $918 −$918 -100%
Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $1,310 +$970 +74%
Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $1,311 +$1,128 +86%
Yokohama FC vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija: O/U 2.5 May 30 $762 −$750 -98%
Kōchi United SC vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $758 −$750 -99%
Will Kagoshima United FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,272 −$1,250 -98%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 28 $1,234 +$766 +62%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 25 $892 +$570 +64%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 24 $332 −$332 -100%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,139 −$1,139 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $472 +$318 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,532 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2,737 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,562 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $6,694 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $91 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,360 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $980 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $14 45h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $1,035 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 64¢ $1,106 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3,161 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3,218 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $129 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $7,439 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,290 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2,708 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $672 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2,576 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,789 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,962 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2,135 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $2,135 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $2,429 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 62¢ $1,894 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2,598 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,334 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $435 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $2 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $144 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,553.88 · official $7,553.88 (match) · 486 history records