Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208e…bcb3 crypto 82 markets active 336d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$170,130 (+41%) realized +$170,130 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate72%59W / 23L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$5,102per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$169,017
sports 5% +$807
politics 0% +$300
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 82 +16.6% +5.5% 72% 38% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 38% +27.3%
10% -4.6% 23% +15.1%
15% ← realistic here -13.8% 20% +4.0%
20% -22.3% 16% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$2,336) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,275 vs −$1,003 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.37 per $1 lost it wins $8.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$170,130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses59 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage92d
Avg bet$5,102
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 27 $64 +$1 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? Jul 05 $20,120 −$20,120 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? Jul 01 $47,513 +$30,855 +65%
Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC before July? Jun 30 $1,941 −$1,935 -100%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 11 $6,898 +$1,159 +17%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $16,629 +$1,266 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $250 +$640 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $830 +$170 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2,285 +$215 +9%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 04 $11 +$3 +24%
Punjab Kings vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore Jun 03 $10,136 +$100 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2,711 +$289 +11%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2? Jun 02 $5,094 +$662 +13%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? Jun 01 $29 −$3 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 01 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin all time high before 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 01 $18 −$2 -14%
XRP Up or Down in May? Jun 01 $34 −$20 -56%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 01 $7 +$3 +52%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? Jun 01 $14 +$6 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down in May? Jun 01 $31 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down in May? Jun 01 $39 +$11 +28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 01 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down in May? Jun 01 $31 +$17 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $6,323 −$323 -5%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26? May 27 $62,644 +$103,586 +165%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 26 $34,526 +$2,151 +6%
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad May 20 $4,087 +$897 +22%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 13-19? May 19 $14,709 +$1,514 +10%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 13 $2 +$3 +150%
Will XRP reach $2.50 in May? May 13 $3 +$2 +92%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 12 $46,818 +$2,615 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May? May 12 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on May 9? May 10 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May? May 09 $50 +$9 +19%
Punjab Kings vs. Delhi Capitals May 09 $2,336 −$312 -13%
Kolkata Knight Riders vs. Chennai Super Kings May 08 $884 +$185 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? May 07 $54 −$7 -13%
Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6? May 07 $200 +$300 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $4,900 +$100 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $4,900 +$100 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? May 06 $78 −$6 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? May 05 $26 −$5 -19%
Sunrisers Hyderabad vs. Delhi Capitals May 05 $3,857 −$82 -2%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? May 05 $23,720 +$6,708 +28%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? May 05 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? May 05 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? May 04 $109 +$10 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? May 04 $131 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 336d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 336d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 336d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 75¢ $104 358d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 65¢ $7,531 358d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 60¢ $363 358d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 43¢ $2,536 358d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 63¢ $630 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 70¢ $160 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 61¢ $194 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 58¢ $275 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 58¢ $879 360d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 361d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 50¢ $6,290 361d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 362d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 74¢ $279 362d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 84¢ $840 362d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 363d
Will MicroStrategy hold 650k+ BTC before July? SELL Yes $5 363d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 35¢ $1,608 377d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 40¢ $0 377d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 40¢ $181 377d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 40¢ $804 377d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 40¢ $1 377d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 40¢ $160 377d
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? BUY No 40¢ $16 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.00 · official $80.00 (match) · 2772 history records