Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x208f…9f4c sports 66 markets active 1d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$45
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$19
other 7% +$26
crypto 7% −$14
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +53.8% +39.2% 49% 49% +8.3%
≤30d 55 +31.0% +18.5% 44% 44% -11.5%
≤90d 55 +31.0% +18.5% 44% 44% -11.5%
all 55 +31.0% +18.5% 44% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 44% -11.5%
10% +7.2% 44% -20.0%
15% -3.2% 44% -27.7%
20% -12.7% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)55 / 66
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 59¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 58¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 +$14 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 +$6 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$13 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 59¢ $10 27h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $10 27h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 27h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.43 · official $72.43 (match) · 96 history records