Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2092…0479 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,042 (-7%) realized −$315 · open −$727
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 34L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$106
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$1,007
sports 3% −$7
crypto 0% −$22
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 19 -3.8% -13.0% 95% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 27 -32.3% -38.8% 67% 0% -11.4%
all 57 -46.7% -51.7% 40% 7% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.7% 7% -11.5%
10% -56.4% 7% -20.0%
15% -60.6% 7% -27.7%
20% -64.4% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -57% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$727
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage710d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists No 99¢ 52¢ $1,523 $794 −$729 (-48%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 60¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,524 +$15 +1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,524 +$15 +1%
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,524 +$15 +1%
Malik Tillman: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,525 +$15 +1%
Lukáš Provod: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,525 +$15 +1%
Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,525 +$15 +1%
Aymen Hussein: 3+ goals Jun 17 $513 +$5 +1%
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals Jun 16 $513 +$5 +1%
Borja Iglesias: 3+ goals Jun 15 $513 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $513 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $513 +$5 +1%
Spread: Hurricanes (-4.5) Jun 12 $398 +$11 +3%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $472 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $197 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $295 +$6 +2%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Chile? Jun 09 $489 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $190 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $8 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Apr 06 $410 −$410 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? Jan 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,300.00 in December? Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Jan 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Ethereum hit $3,800 by Friday? Dec 16 $1 +$4 +335%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2024? Dec 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Dec 03 $0 $0 -100%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Dec 03 $0 $0 +72%
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump mention $MAGA before Election? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kamala Harris solo interview before debate? Sep 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Court temporarily allows Texas to arrest migrants? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beirut airport close by August 5? Sep 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ferrán Torres: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,523 1h
Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,524 11h
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,524 26h
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,524 37h
Malik Tillman: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,525 2d
Lukáš Provod: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,525 3d
Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,525 3d
Aymen Hussein: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $513 4d
Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $513 5d
Borja Iglesias: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $513 5d
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 99¢ $513 7d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $513 8d
Spread: Hurricanes (-4.5) BUY Golden Knights 97¢ $398 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $472 10d
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $197 10d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 98¢ $295 11d
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 3 Chile? BUY No 99¢ $489 12d
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $190 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13d
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $8 13d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $3 75d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $410 151d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 167d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) BUY NIP 53¢ $4 201d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) BUY NIP 43¢ $5 201d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) BUY fnatic 46¢ $5 201d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) BUY 3DMAX $1 230d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner BUY 3DMAX 17¢ $1 230d
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C BUY Yes $2 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.66 · official $798.66 (match) · 121 history records