Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2096…a383 crypto 1440 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$532 (-7%) realized −$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%488W / 950L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1438 -0.8% -10.2% 34% 30% -10.2%
≤30d 1438 -0.8% -10.2% 34% 30% -10.2%
≤90d 1438 -0.8% -10.2% 34% 30% -10.2%
all 1438 -0.8% -10.2% 34% 30% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 30% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 1% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses488 / 950
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1438 / 1440
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 50¢ 96¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.77 · official $8.93 (match) · 3500 history records