Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x2099…3024 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (307 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,285 (+76%) realized +$2,280 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%140W / 405L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day306.5pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$123
other 12% −$7
politics 9% −$8
economics 1% +$4
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (307 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 503 +54.7% +39.9% 23% 20% -18.2%
≤30d 545 +52.0% +37.5% 26% 22% -13.7%
≤90d 545 +52.0% +37.5% 26% 22% -13.7%
all 545 +52.0% +37.5% 26% 22% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover306.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.5% 22% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here +24.4% 19% -22.0%
15% +12.3% 17% -29.5%
20% +1.3% 16% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +164% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$2,280
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses140 / 405
Open positions54
Markets (closed)545 / 119
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day306.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 30¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+233%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 39¢ 86¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+122%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 49¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+101%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? Yes 17¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 21¢ 99¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+370%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? No 38¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 5¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+913%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+115%)
SHEIN IPO before 2027? Yes 33¢ 23¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+145%)
Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 23¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+332%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+155%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fradulent? Yes 24¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 4¢ 23¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+468%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 431 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 Jun 27 $1 +$3 +552%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 Jun 27 $1 +$5 +425%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +190%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 27 $2 +$9 +416%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? Jun 27 $0 +$8 +17761%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +170%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22? Jun 27 $1 +$3 +331%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 27 $1 +$6 +757%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 27 $1 $0 +29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 27 $1 +$3 +272%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meetin Jun 27 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 +37%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +669%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 27 $0 +$1 +144%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 7? Jun 27 $0 +$3 +9178%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +540%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 27 $0 $0 -53%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Jun 27 $0 −$1 -602%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on April 30? Jun 27 $0 $0 +475%
Will Morocco vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$3 -161%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Gr Jun 27 $2 −$2 -152%
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $0 +$2 +1057%
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +7538%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $1.50 (LOW) by April 3 Jun 27 $0 $0 -101%
Will Russia win on 2026-03-31? Jun 27 $1 −$2 -180%
Will Sheffield United FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 2? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -134%
Will Tesla dip to $353 in March? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 27 $0 $0 +250%
Will ES Troyes AC vs. Pau FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Embargados Team vs Amo Minha Ex - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $1 −$3 -392%
Will "Terrorist" or "Terrorism" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experie Jun 27 $0 −$1 -192%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Lloyd Ha Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-02-14? Jun 27 $0 $0 -365%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on May 7? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -103%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 27 $1 $0 +24%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 27 $0 −$1 -357%
Spread: Burnley FC (-2.5) Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Jun 27 $0 −$2 -838%
Will Josh Emmett win by KO or TKO? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -73%
Spread: Atlético San Luis (-2.5) Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Perth Glory FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 27 $0 +$1 +291%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on April 22? Jun 27 $1 −$2 -190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? SELL No 16¢ $2 2h
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 2h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 8h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift's wedding? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $0 11h
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 13h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep) SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 17h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 17h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 4¢ $4 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.73 · official $68.21 · 3500 history records