Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x209a…5ae4 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$392 (+14%) realized +$392 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$174
7 days−$39
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$272
other 7% +$124
crypto 5% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.5%
≤30d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.5%
≤90d 12 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.5%
all 12 -0.9% -10.3% 67% 67% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 67% -4.5%
10% -18.9% 67% -13.6%
15% -26.7% 50% -22.0%
20% -33.9% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$227 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage8d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $510 −$440 -86%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $307 +$193 +63%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $153 +$110 +72%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $204 +$86 +42%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $306 +$101 +33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$124 +60%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 19 $509 +$167 +33%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $245 −$240 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $123 −$120 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$43 +42%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 16 $107 +$47 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 16¢ $58 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $307 16h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 65¢ $510 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $153 16h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 69¢ $204 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Scotland 100¢ $216 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Scotland 92¢ $191 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 70¢ $306 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $204 41h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $204 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 74¢ $305 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $112 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $245 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $123 4d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 68¢ $107 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records