Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x209b…ecc6 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,653 (-7%) realized −$1,345 · open −$308
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$1,821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,091
other 1% −$74
sports 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.5% -29.0% 40% 40% -28.3%
≤30d 49 -20.2% -27.8% 59% 45% -17.5%
≤90d 49 -20.2% -27.8% 59% 45% -17.5%
all 49 -20.2% -27.8% 59% 45% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 45% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 29% -25.4%
15% -41.1% 16% -32.6%
20% -46.8% 10% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$312 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,646
Realized−$1,345
Unrealized−$308
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage24d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Up 61¢ 52¢ $1,852 $1,568 −$284 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Up 61¢ 46¢ $101 $77 −$24 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $38 +$66 +172%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET May 29 $1,809 −$1,807 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $192 +$108 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $323 −$282 -87%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $337 −$300 -89%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET May 29 $547 −$421 -77%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 29 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 29 $262 −$253 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $485 +$35 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 29 $465 +$35 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $360 +$40 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $66 +$14 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 28 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 28 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 28 $1,134 +$695 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8AM ET May 28 $102 +$30 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $102 +$51 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6AM ET May 28 $1,699 +$1,221 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $385 +$115 +30%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4AM ET May 28 $450 +$50 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $197 −$197 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $69 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $158 +$12 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET May 28 $190 −$190 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1AM ET May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? May 28 $497 −$497 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $402 +$86 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $245 +$105 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10PM ET May 28 $1,048 +$250 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 28 $141 +$159 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 28 $2,090 +$110 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2AM ET May 27 $850 +$149 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $688 +$112 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $526 +$174 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 26 $354 −$354 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 26 $1,015 +$267 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 26 $1,023 +$476 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $102 +$29 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 58¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 60¢ $1,015 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 62¢ $827 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 61¢ $104 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $38 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 5d
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $233 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $16 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $68 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $359 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $56 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $22 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $448 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,645.59 · official $1,297.32 · 563 history records