Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x209e…5703
sports · 331 markets active 3h ago
2.5score
+$38 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses200 / 127
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)327 / 331
History coverage39d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 4 History 327 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$33
14 days+$35
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ 74¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 55¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anhelina Kalinina vs Diane Parry Anhelina Kalinina 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Luciano Darderi 74¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 68¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Charles Broom 62¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta Thanasi Kokkinakis 28¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Anastasia Potapova 65¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 87¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado Juan Carlos Prado 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz Jaume Munar 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Over 83¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? No 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 48¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$4 +11%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$7 +68%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 +$5 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $15 +$7 +43%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $15 +$7 +43%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $13 +$4 +32%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $13 +$6 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $13 +$6 +48%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $15 +$3 +21%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $15 +$6 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $15 +$23 +148%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $12 +$9 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 07 $12 +$2 +13%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 07 $12 +$20 +165%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $12 +$5 +40%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $12 +$3 +23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $12 +$3 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 07 $22 −$1 -7%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $13 +$9 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $13 +$2 +12%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $12 +$4 +34%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 06 $9 −$9 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% +$14
other 29% +$14
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $13 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $13 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $13 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $12 12h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $9 13h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 17h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY South Africa 82¢ $10 19h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $10 19h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $15 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $10 27h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $10 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 34h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 63¢ $10 37h
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 89¢ $20 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $12 43h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $20 43h
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $22 44h
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 100¢ $22 44h
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 49¢ $10 2d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 62¢ $15 2d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 69¢ $15 2d
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 69¢ $15 2d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $15 2d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 68¢ $15 2d
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 80¢ $10 2d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $17 2d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 67¢ $13 3d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones BUY Laura Siegemund 69¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 65% -6.1%
≤30d 295 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 55% -13.8%
≤90d 327 +2.5% -7.2% 61% 59% -8.6%
all 327 +2.5% -7.2% 61% 59% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 59% -8.6%
10% -16.1% 53% -17.3%
15% -24.2% 43% -25.3%
20% -31.6% 31% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.70 · official $64.70 (match) · 648 history records