Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x209e…18ed politics 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%22W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$1
other 31% +$1
world 21% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 51 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses22 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage318d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $103 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $3 $0 +8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $47 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 305–319 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $9 $0 +3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 10 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 10 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $49 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 08 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 07 $5 $0 -6%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $48 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $48 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $49 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $9 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $49 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.33 · official $48.33 (match) · 160 history records