Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20a2…b929 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,541 (+16%) realized +$3,474 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,404per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$444
7 days+$5,257
14 days+$3,472
30 days+$3,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$5,515
other 13% −$1,975
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.6% +1.9% 92% 67% +16.2%
≤30d 15 +8.9% -1.5% 87% 67% +5.1%
≤90d 15 +8.9% -1.5% 87% 67% +5.1%
all 15 +8.9% -1.5% 87% 67% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 67% +5.1%
10% -10.9% 47% -4.9%
15% -19.5% 20% -14.1%
20% -27.4% 13% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$497 vs −$1,497 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,066
Realized+$3,474
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,404
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 Under 90¢ 96¢ $999 $1,066 +$67 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $501 +$53 +11%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $503 +$114 +23%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $504 +$172 +34%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $503 +$126 +25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $503 +$145 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,004 −$1,000 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,003 +$20 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $998 +$520 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $9,984 +$4,830 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,000 −$1,995 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$31 +62%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $905 +$179 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,002 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,074 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1,003 13h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,086 23h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1,002 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $555 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $501 28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $503 36h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $504 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $630 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 79¢ $503 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $649 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $503 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1,004 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,023 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,518 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $998 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14,814 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 67¢ $9,984 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,000 9d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 11d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $1,083 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 11d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 83¢ $905 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,066.33 · official $1,066.33 (match) · 29 history records