Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:52:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20a5…000b other 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$7
culture 8% −$9
economics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 243 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage134d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $452 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $402 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $451 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $848 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $338 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $287 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $461 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $276 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $368 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $896 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $366 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $654 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $278 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 28 $297 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 28 $149 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $272 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 3h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 6h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 8h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 9h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 12h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 14h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 18h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 19h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 22h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 26h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 30h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 37h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 40h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 46h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 47h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.58 · official $61.58 (match) · 1348 history records