Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20a5…72ac other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$35 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%50W / 11L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$6
politics 39% +$3
world 10% +$1
crypto 5% +$23
sports 2% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.8% -2.4% 100% 25% -5.1%
≤30d 7 +29.3% +17.0% 71% 29% +52.4%
≤90d 16 +7.9% -2.4% 81% 12% +4.6%
all 61 +2.2% -7.5% 82% 13% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 13% -6.0%
10% -16.4% 7% -15.0%
15% -24.5% 7% -23.2%
20% -31.9% 7% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses50 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)61 / 83
History coverage242d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 82¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
EU dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 84¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 31¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? No 82¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET May 18 $5 +$15 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 23 $16 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +7%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +4%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +2%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $6 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $4 $0 +4%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 16 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 09 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February? Feb 09 $1 +$4 +354%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)? Feb 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Zama launch a token in 2025? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Feb 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Feb 03 $5 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 03 $5 $0 +6%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 30 $2 $0 +3%
Spread: Warriors (-6.5) Jan 30 $5 $0 +1%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jan 30 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 23 $157 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 23 $207 +$12 +6%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $3 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 80¢ $3 1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $2 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 1h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $1 14d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $5 27d
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $1 27d
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $5 27d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 27d
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $19 27d
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $10 27d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $10 27d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.29 · official $266.29 (match) · 193 history records