Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20a9…031c crypto 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$379 (+10%) realized +$371 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%53W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$137
14 days+$314
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +1.4% -8.2% 53% 53% +1.4%
≤30d 98 +3.3% -6.5% 54% 53% -1.9%
≤90d 98 +3.3% -6.5% 54% 53% -1.9%
all 98 +3.3% -6.5% 54% 53% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 53% -1.9%
10% -15.5% 51% -11.3%
15% -23.6% 48% -19.9%
20% -31.1% 46% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$30 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$371
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses53 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage13d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 51¢ 90¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $62 +$56 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $331 +$320 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $165 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$70 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $166 +$151 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $331 −$33 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $13 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 170 history records