Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x20a9…18a3 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$672 (+8%) realized +$672 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$592
crypto 2% −$11
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 53% -2.6%
≤30d 15 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 53% -2.6%
≤90d 15 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 53% -2.6%
all 15 +14.4% +3.5% 67% 53% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.5% 53% -2.6%
10% -6.4% 47% -12.0%
15% ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -20.5%
20% -23.7% 40% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$529 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$672
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $46 −$17 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $90 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $664 +$872 +132%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $396 +$256 +65%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $986 −$966 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $727 +$313 +43%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,152 −$1,137 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,252 +$237 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $708 +$387 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $767 +$826 +108%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $441 +$326 +74%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $909 −$522 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $664 9h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 9h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 33¢ $986 10h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 51¢ $240 11h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 55¢ $912 11h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $396 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records