Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20ad…307d sports 713 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,638 (-2%) realized −$2,713 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%313W / 392L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$433
7 days+$1,417
14 days+$3,512
30 days+$3,512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$2,465
crypto 9% −$4,038
other 7% −$1,187
politics 1% −$450
world 1% +$8
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.7% -12.8% 51% 42% -3.3%
≤30d 174 +0.2% -9.4% 51% 47% -0.8%
≤90d 174 +0.2% -9.4% 51% 47% -0.8%
all 705 -11.8% -20.2% 44% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -11.4%
10% -27.9% 37% -19.8%
15% -34.8% 28% -27.6%
20% -41.2% 21% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$95 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$875
Realized−$2,713
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses313 / 392
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions8
Markets (closed)705 / 713
History coverage150d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$64 -32%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$52 +51%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$87 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $916 +$46 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$25 -24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $605 −$59 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,082 +$78 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$16 -16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,091 +$316 +29%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$181 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$55 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $303 +$143 +47%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $253 +$114 +45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $757 +$159 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$62 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $495 −$238 -48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $286 −$35 -12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$4 -13%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$25 -24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$29 -29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$19 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 −$26 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$47 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$9 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $303 +$170 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +78%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $908 +$191 +21%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$53 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $934 +$68 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $504 +$190 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $876 +$64 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $135 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $153 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $101 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 92¢ $590 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $962 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $916 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $77 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $546 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,160 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,082 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $605 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $0 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $85 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $875.04 · official $875.05 (match) · 1916 history records