Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20ae…dd72 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%20W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$1
crypto 28% +$1
world 26% +$2
tech 5% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -9.4%
all 21 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×57.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1156.51 per $1 lost it wins $1156.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses20 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage130d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $133 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 11 2026? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? May 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $114 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April? Apr 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $82 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $136 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of March? Apr 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 25? Mar 26 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 21? Mar 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 21 $52 $0 +0%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? Mar 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 04 $83 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Mar 04 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20? Feb 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 16 $170 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 Feb 15 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $133 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 41d
Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $58 49d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 SELL No 50¢ $114 67d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 BUY No 50¢ $35 69d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 BUY No 50¢ $48 69d
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 BUY No 50¢ $31 69d
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $35 70d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 76d
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April? BUY No 99¢ $21 77d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $136 84d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $87 88d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $96 91d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $61 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $52 103d
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? BUY No 100¢ $104 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $102 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $83 120d
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 120d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $6 120d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $20? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 129d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 20 BUY No 100¢ $22 130d
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $33 130d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $170 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.79 · official $78.79 (match) · 46 history records