Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
20 0x20af…952f weather 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%146W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$24
14 days+$27
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$58
crypto 34% +$24
sports 1% +$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.1% -44.0% 50% 50% -1.2%
≤30d 189 -10.6% -19.1% 64% 64% -13.2%
≤90d 228 -9.7% -18.3% 64% 64% -13.5%
all 228 -9.7% -18.3% 64% 64% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 64% -13.5%
10% -26.1% 61% -21.8%
15% -33.2% 38% -29.3%
20% -39.8% 7% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses146 / 82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage91d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 96¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 05 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 05 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $2 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 6? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 77¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 6? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 7? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 15d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 77¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $5.70 (match) · 399 history records