Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:10:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20b4…1a17 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+9%) realized +$113 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days−$26
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$9
sports 5% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.8% -46.4% 33% 33% -20.0%
≤30d 11 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 55% +0.9%
≤90d 11 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 55% +0.9%
all 11 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 55% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 55% +0.9%
10% -26.2% 45% -8.8%
15% -33.3% 45% -17.6%
20% -39.9% 36% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$24 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $70 $53 −$17 (-25%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 28¢ $80 $41 −$39 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $41 +$34 +85%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $72 −$70 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$47 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 8d
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.25 · official $93.25 (match) · 27 history records