Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
20 0x20b6…e422 crypto 928 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$596 (+3%) realized +$589 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%694W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day128.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$701
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -36.0% -42.1% 45% 40% -29.8%
≤30d 1100 -14.4% -22.5% 63% 55% -21.6%
≤90d 1100 -14.4% -22.5% 63% 55% -21.6%
all 1100 -14.4% -22.5% 63% 55% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 55% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 38% -29.1%
15% -36.7% 23% -35.9%
20% -42.9% 11% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$589
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses694 / 406
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1100 / 928
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day128.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 74¢ 81¢ $67 $74 +$7 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 358 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$6 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$10 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$4 -344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$9 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $18 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $22 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $12 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $18 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $32 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.85 · official $170.60 · 3500 history records