Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20b9…c378 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 20% −$1
crypto 10% +$1
politics 9% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -0.9% -10.4% 28% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.9% -10.4% 28% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.7% -10.1% 28% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage285d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $77 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $35 +$2 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $76 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $36 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $71 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $37 +$1 +4%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 16 $7 $0 -5%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $27 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in September? Sep 11 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $18 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 159 history records