Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20b9…4aff sports 1117 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (733 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202,160 (-63%) realized −$202,474 · open +$314
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate98%590W / 12L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day733.0pace
Fees−$1,491est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$23,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$30,249
other 42% +$49,988
crypto 11% +$903
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (733 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 602 +22.5% +10.9% 98% 48% -43.3%
≤30d 602 +22.5% +10.9% 98% 48% -43.3%
≤90d 602 +22.5% +10.9% 98% 48% -43.3%
all 602 +22.5% +10.9% 98% 48% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover733.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 48% -43.3%
10% +0.2% 30% -48.7%
15% ← realistic here -9.4% 20% -53.7%
20% -18.3% 12% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$23,474 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$23,104
Realized−$202,474
Unrealized+$314
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses590 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,491
Open positions2
Markets (closed)602 / 1117
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$287
Trades / day733.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 602 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 76¢ $12,021 $12,264 +$244 (+2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $10,769 $10,839 +$70 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20,485 −$20,485 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 25 $31,800 −$31,800 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $35,100 −$35,100 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $523 −$523 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $46,599 −$46,599 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $30,399 −$30,399 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $50,747 −$50,747 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 25 $27,000 −$27,000 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2 Jun 25 $61 +$20 +33%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. Jun 25 $422 +$78 +19%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U Jun 25 $14 +$5 +35%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND S Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 25 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $1,429 +$941 +66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 25 $14 +$1 +9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o Jun 25 $18 +$7 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi Jun 25 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 25 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 25 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $179 +$21 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $412 +$78 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi Jun 25 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic Jun 25 $599 +$376 +63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-2 Jun 25 $0 $0 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W Jun 25 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic Jun 25 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $16 +$4 +22%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi Jun 25 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic Jun 25 $59 +$26 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $17 +$5 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AN Jun 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $85 +$45 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W Jun 25 $164 +$36 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Jun 25 $28 +$2 +5%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2 Jun 25 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06 Jun 25 $651 +$483 +74%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2 Jun 25 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 25 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $908 +$350 +39%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Bosnia and Herzeg Jun 25 $152 +$48 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 Jun 25 $180 +$210 +116%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND W Jun 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $1,827 +$1,670 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 94¢ $804 2m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 2m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Colombi BUY 85¢ $426 3m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 97¢ $188 4m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 4m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $33 5m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $33 6m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 88¢ $421 8m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $7 8m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $136 8m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 9m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $33 10m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 10m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 11m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $33 12m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $335 13m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $40 14m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $7 15m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $134 16m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 16m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $17 19m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $7 22m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 22m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $17 23m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $17 23m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $15 24m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $32 25m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $67 25m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 92¢ $138 27m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,103.91 · official $96,635.07 · 3500 history records