Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x20bb…8c1d other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$2
world 25% +$1
politics 23% $0
crypto 15% +$2
tech 4% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -14.1% -22.2% 25% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 4 -14.1% -22.2% 25% 0% -8.0%
all 39 -0.6% -10.0% 49% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 3% -8.8%
10% -18.6% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage471d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $6 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $51 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 05 $18 $0 -2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 3? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 30 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $17 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +4%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 10 $15 −$1 -9%
Another commercial airline evacuation before March? Mar 06 $14 +$1 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls Mar 03 $14 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $6 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 84¢ $44 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 84¢ $9 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 81¢ $51 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $19 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $10 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $4 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $26 25d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 183d
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2 358d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 373d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 376d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 378d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 99¢ $2 392d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? SELL Yes $3 403d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? SELL Yes $2 404d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 98¢ $2 406d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City SELL No 98¢ $11 420d
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City BUY No 98¢ $11 422d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? SELL No 98¢ $11 422d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? BUY No 98¢ $11 425d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? SELL No 96¢ $11 425d
Will Rumble buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $11 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.89 · official $51.89 (match) · 99 history records