Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20bb…fc76 crypto 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$194 (+2%) realized +$181 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%177W / 43L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$18
14 days−$1
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$86
other 31% +$168
world 2% +$4
weather 1% +$5
politics 1% +$17
finance 1% $0
sports 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.9% -14.0% 64% 17% -8.7%
≤30d 140 -0.4% -9.9% 76% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 220 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 13% -8.6%
all 220 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 13% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 13% -8.6%
10% -17.7% 6% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 5% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses177 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)220 / 226
History coverage54d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $47 $56 +$8 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 95¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 39¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $150 −$23 -16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$11 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $49 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 +$64 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 +$79 +157%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$18 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 15 $50 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $119 −$52 -44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $102 −$19 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $134 −$28 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$35 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$11 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$7 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $50 44m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $50 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $41 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $50 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $23 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $27 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $39 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 44¢ $45 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 46¢ $42 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $22 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 51¢ $40 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 39h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $50 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $19 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.39 · official $260.61 (match) · 693 history records