Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x20be…130f other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$121 (+36%) realized +$111 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +93% what you keep after slip
Net edge+93%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$95
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$146
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+93.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +138.0% +115.4% 100% 100% +103.1%
≤30d 4 +113.7% +93.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
≤90d 4 +113.7% +93.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
all 4 +113.7% +93.4% 100% 100% +60.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +93.4% 100% +60.1%
10% +74.9% 100% +44.8%
15% +58.0% 100% +30.8%
20% +42.5% 75% +18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +77% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +114% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage74d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 66¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $100 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.45 · official $120.45 · 14 history records