Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20bf…2be9 sports 439 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,898 (-13%) realized −$3,878 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%161W / 257L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$468est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$1,726
14 days−$4,645
30 days−$5,723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$3,117
other 24% −$1,313
crypto 0% −$22
world 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -53.6% -58.0% 20% 13% -91.4%
≤30d 260 -24.0% -31.2% 30% 28% -39.6%
≤90d 418 -8.0% -16.8% 39% 37% -22.8%
all 418 -8.0% -16.8% 39% 37% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 37% -22.8%
10% -24.7% 36% -30.2%
15% -32.0% 34% -36.9%
20% -38.7% 32% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$53 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$3,878
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses161 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions18
Markets (closed)418 / 439
History coverage58d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 60¢ 60¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $121 $100 −$22 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 36¢ 50¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 32¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Emilio Nava 24¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$7 +83%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 +$4 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $994 −$984 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $329 −$323 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $227 −$223 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$6 -12%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$13 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $123 +$80 +65%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 10 $41 +$28 +70%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $30 +$24 +80%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $29 −$29 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $36 −$36 -99%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $31 +$20 +65%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $31 +$20 +62%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $31 +$20 +65%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $31 +$20 +62%
Bratislava: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Tomas Barrios Jun 07 $23 −$22 -99%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 07 $21 −$21 -99%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $41 +$14 +36%
ITF Rosbach: Kai Wehnelt vs Niels Mcdonald Jun 07 $20 +$17 +86%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $22 +$28 +129%
ITF Ljubljana: Dylan Dietrich vs Jan Kupcic Jun 07 $30 +$18 +60%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $33 −$8 -24%
ITF Monastir: Jacob Bradshaw vs Yassine Dlimi Jun 07 $18 −$3 -19%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 07 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 07 $203 −$203 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 07 $124 −$124 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 24¢ $15 36m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 36¢ $15 51m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 40¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 59¢ $78 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 51¢ $10 4h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Tamara Korpatsch 23¢ $5 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao BUY 16¢ $10 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $45 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 37¢ $9 20h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 20h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $53 25h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $56 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 20¢ $3 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $10 27h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 11¢ $1 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 39¢ $10 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $8 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $8 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $1 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 13¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $10 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $1 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $7 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $10 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.89 · official $369.89 · 1175 history records