Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
20 0x20c2…e754 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$717 (+36%) realized +$717 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$110
other 38% +$603
world 7% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +44.8% +31.0% 86% 86% +26.2%
≤30d 14 +44.8% +31.0% 86% 86% +26.2%
≤90d 14 +44.8% +31.0% 86% 86% +26.2%
all 14 +44.8% +31.0% 86% 86% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 86% +26.2%
10% +18.5% 79% +14.1%
15% +7.0% 71% +3.1%
20% -3.4% 50% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$117 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$717
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $159 +$94 +59%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $69 +$90 +130%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $147 +$84 +57%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $132 +$151 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $131 +$57 +44%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $278 +$132 +48%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $131 +$147 +112%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $101 +$22 +22%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $136 +$74 +55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $111 +$25 +23%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $244 −$134 -55%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $166 +$79 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 +$67 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $253 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $159 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 43¢ $69 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $147 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $131 4d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $132 4d
Norway to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $410 4d
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 67¢ $278 4d
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $278 4d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $131 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 4d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 4d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 64¢ $136 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $136 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $111 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 14¢ $110 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $244 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $245 5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $166 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $91 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records