Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20c7…fc85 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$20
other 23% −$5
sports 9% $0
finance 7% −$5
politics 6% −$3
weather 5% +$3
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 10% -6.2%
≤90d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 40% 10% -6.2%
all 42 -4.4% -13.5% 33% 5% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -8.4%
10% -21.7% 5% -17.1%
15% -29.3% 2% -25.1%
20% -36.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage472d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $63 −$5 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $57 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $53 +$5 +10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $53 +$4 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $42 +$12 +29%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $25 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 24 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $5 $0 +10%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $3 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 02 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $18 $0 -1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 24 $18 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $12 −$4 -35%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Kent State vs. Western Michigan Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
NJIT vs. Binghamton Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 3? Mar 03 $23 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 44°F or higher on March 3? Mar 03 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? Mar 03 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'inflation' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Unio Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $57 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $11 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $30 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $15 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $57 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $15 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $12 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $53 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $44 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $16 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $19 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $21 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $20 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $33 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.43 · official $56.43 (match) · 141 history records