Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

20 0x20c8…d999 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$145 (+58%) realized +$163 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +126% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip

Net edge+97%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%8W / 4L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day7.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+104.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+126.2%	+104.6%	67%	67%	+95.8%
≤30d	12	+126.2%	+104.6%	67%	67%	+95.8%
≤90d	12	+126.2%	+104.6%	67%	67%	+95.8%
all	12	+126.2%	+104.6%	67%	67%	+95.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+104.6%	67%	+95.8%
10%	+85.0%	67%	+77.0%
15%	+67.2%	67%	+59.9%
20%	+50.8%	67%	+44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +126% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +134% → late +118% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$10 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$72

Realized+$163

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses8 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)12 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day7.8

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	15¢	$35	$30	−$5 (-14%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	50¢	24¢	$25	$12	−$13 (-51%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	26¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$15	+$43	+283%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$12	+$35	+287%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$5	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$38	+247%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$30	+$18	+58%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$10	−$1	-11%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Jun 13	$10	+$61	+596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$10	+$10	+97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$17	+165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	46¢	$5	4m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	47m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$59	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$48	4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$12	21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$53	24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$48	46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$15	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$15	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$9	2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$27	3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.86 · official $71.86 (match) · 37 history records