Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20ca…8f0d other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$95 (-6%) realized −$89 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$94
other 45% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -35.3% -41.4% 35% 35% -14.6%
≤30d 17 -35.3% -41.4% 35% 35% -14.6%
≤90d 17 -35.3% -41.4% 35% 35% -14.6%
all 17 -35.3% -41.4% 35% 35% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 35% -14.6%
10% -47.0% 29% -22.7%
15% -52.2% 24% -30.2%
20% -56.9% 24% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$35 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $63 $59 −$4 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $272 +$93 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $426 +$66 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $176 −$173 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $194 +$120 +62%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $114 −$20 -17%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $18 +$13 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +109%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $70 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 3m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $64 10m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $80 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $192 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 92¢ $492 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $426 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $99 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $77 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 23h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $314 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $93 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $94 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $34 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $114 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $18 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.22 · official $160.00 · 34 history records