Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x20cb…e9ec other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$432 (-14%) realized −$429 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$347
7 days−$337
14 days−$334
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$214
sports 36% −$147
world 2% +$9
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.2% +7.9% 57% 57% -19.9%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 50% -19.7%
≤90d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 50% -19.7%
all 13 -10.6% -19.1% 46% 46% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 46% -19.9%
10% -26.9% 23% -27.5%
15% -33.9% 15% -34.5%
20% -40.4% 15% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$96 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$429
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage149d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Yes $7 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $302 +$93 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $637 +$112 +18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $800 −$240 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $795 +$94 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $407 −$406 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be red? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +300%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$5 -96%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 07 $48 +$9 +18%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 02 $3 −$2 -85%
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the top global Netflix show this week? (Janu Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an Jan 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $7 +$7 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $238 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $8 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $57 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $6 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $266 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $40 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $15 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $7 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $51 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $509 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $121 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $104 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $547 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $8 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $20 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $889 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $795 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No $1 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $407 2d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? SELL No $0 5d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY Yes $7 7d
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? BUY No $1 10d
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? BUY No $6 10d
Will Donald Trump's tie be red? BUY No 25¢ $0 10d
Will Donald Trump's tie be red? BUY No 25¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No $5 13d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? SELL No $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.45 · official $3.45 (match) · 47 history records