Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20ce…6c7f politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,178 (+1%) realized +$1,179 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,603per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$75
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$113
other 40% −$21
sports 8% +$1,285
culture 1% −$4
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% −$2
world 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -3.2% -12.4% 11% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 80 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 4% -9.0%
all 128 +1.9% -7.8% 21% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 10% -9.0%
10% -16.6% 10% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 9% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,074) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$7 · ×9.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$1,179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,603
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $401 $400 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $5,639 −$6 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,287 −$6 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,369 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,391 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $988 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $69 +$43 +62%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7,007 −$8 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3,739 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $362 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $496 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $2,045 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,141 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $821 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $75 −$75 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $71 +$22 +31%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,219 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,739 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,568 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,670 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $6,414 −$7 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 06 $4,564 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $5,435 −$6 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 04 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $306 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $306 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 45h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 46h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $842 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $843 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $861 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $862 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $401 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,347 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,337 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,339 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,215 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $986 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $988 11d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $69 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $85 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.06 · official $400.06 (match) · 420 history records