Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
20 0x20ce…577f other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$466per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$9
other 30% +$3
sports 20% −$5
crypto 6% +$3
economics 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.1% -9.4% 45% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage256d
Avg bet$466
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $233 $233 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in May 2026? May 15 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in March 2026? Mar 10 $229 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 February 16-22? Feb 26 $233 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Feb 21 $241 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Feb 14 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Feb 07 $233 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $240 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026? Jan 23 $230 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in January 2026? Jan 16 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in January 2026? Jan 09 $235 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $215 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 December 15-21? Dec 26 $226 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 19 $231 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Dec 07 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 26 Dec 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 02 $162 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $100 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Nov 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Nov 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Opensea launch a token by October 31? Oct 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 21 $170 $0 -0%
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? Oct 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will George Foreman be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2 Oct 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Sean Winter win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 18 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 18 $350 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 17 $500 −$1 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 16 $480 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 16 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Chidwick win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championshi Oct 16 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 16 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 16 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $960 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 16 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 16 $756 −$1 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 16 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 15 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 15 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $233 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 45d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 122d
Will Solana dip to $50 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $233 127d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $241 134d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $227 141d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 148d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $240 156d
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $230 163d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 170d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $235 177d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 184d
Will Solana dip to $70 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $226 191d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $231 198d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY No 100¢ $220 203d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $216 208d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 26 BUY No 100¢ $50 214d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 95¢ $30 219d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY No 100¢ $100 223d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $3 227d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $26 227d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 227d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 227d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $132 227d
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $52 231d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 235d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $100 235d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 242d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $45 242d
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $27 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.88 · official $232.88 (match) · 125 history records