Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
20 0x20ce…0d67 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
other 39% −$1
sports 13% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage114d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $115 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $118 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 07 $119 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 04 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $115 12h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $115 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $115 23d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $116 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $116 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $116 35d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $116 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $116 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $117 40d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $117 41d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $117 42d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 45d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 45d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 50d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 50d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 50d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $118 70d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $118 70d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $118 73d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $118 74d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $118 77d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $119 77d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 80d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $119 80d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $119 85d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $119 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $119 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records