Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20d0…ed4e world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 49L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$21
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$33
politics 18% −$4
other 18% −$1
sports 16% $0
economics 2% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 +3.4% -6.5% 37% 7% -6.9%
≤90d 78 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 5% -8.4%
all 80 -2.0% -11.3% 39% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -8.7%
10% -19.8% 2% -17.4%
15% -27.6% 1% -25.4%
20% -34.7% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage524d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $68 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $25 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $118 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $20 +$21 +106%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $67 +$3 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $49 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 +$12 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $23 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $29 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $8 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $50 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $51 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 +14%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $21 $0 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $77 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $73 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $26 31m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $42 31m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $41 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $38 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $27 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $13 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records