Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
20 0x20d1…bc47 crypto 197 markets active 6d ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%110W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$260
14 days−$336
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$115
crypto 34% −$98
other 9% −$60
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -66.0% -69.2% 21% 16% -83.3%
≤30d 86 -34.8% -41.0% 36% 33% -19.0%
≤90d 99 -21.8% -29.2% 42% 39% -12.0%
all 196 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 46% -11.0%
10% -25.6% 35% -19.5%
15% -32.8% 28% -27.3%
20% -39.4% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses110 / 86
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage417d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$6 +62%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $5 +$1 +24%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $4 +$2 +52%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $3 $0 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Re Jun 19 $1 $0 +36%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Jun 19 $1 $0 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Re Jun 19 $15 −$13 -85%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $13 +$8 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +70%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +228%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$25 +100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $37 +$5 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $34 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $35 +$7 +21%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$14 -54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 −$34 -57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 +$5 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$8 +197%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $54 +$26 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$3 +18%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York SELL Mi New York $0 5d
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 20¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL No 24¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $15 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 61¢ $9 6d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $9 6d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 52¢ $3 6d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 52¢ $5 6d
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Seattle Orcas 34¢ $5 6d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico SELL Los Angeles Knight Riders 100¢ $7 6d
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico BUY Los Angeles Knight Riders 80¢ $5 6d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $4 7d
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 89¢ $3 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Re BUY 73¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Will Mexico vs. BUY 72¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Re SELL $2 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Re BUY 44¢ $15 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $1 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 32¢ $9 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 36¢ $7 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $13 8d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY 42¢ $51 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 87¢ $17 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 87¢ $44 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 72¢ $50 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 578 history records