Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20d3…1585 sports 22 markets active 21h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$217 (-30%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$163
other 29% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -28.7% -35.5% 45% 36% -37.3%
≤30d 22 -28.7% -35.5% 45% 36% -37.3%
≤90d 22 -28.7% -35.5% 45% 36% -37.3%
all 22 -28.7% -35.5% 45% 36% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.5% 36% -37.3%
10% ← realistic here -41.6% 32% -43.3%
15% -47.3% 32% -48.8%
20% -52.4% 32% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 +$23 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +72%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$12 +18%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $46 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $86 +$55 +64%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 49¢ $5 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $77 31h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $5 35h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $5 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 64¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 58¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $5 40h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 72¢ $5 41h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 73¢ $5 41h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $5 41h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 60¢ $5 41h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 72¢ $5 41h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 74¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $5 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 43h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $5 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records