Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
20 0x20d4…74da sports 8 markets active 5d ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$626 (-49%) realized −$626 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$296
world 22% −$148
other 15% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 17% -52.9%
≤30d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 17% -52.9%
≤90d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 17% -52.9%
all 8 -26.2% -33.3% 12% 12% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 12% -53.8%
10% -39.6% 12% -58.2%
15% -45.5% 12% -62.2%
20% -50.8% 12% -65.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$408 vs −$148 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage104d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $309 −$305 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $102 +$408 +399%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $204 −$199 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $188 −$184 -98%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 03 $135 −$135 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $148 −$13 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $309 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $152 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 4d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $188 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $204 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $102 4d
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? BUY Yes 42¢ $135 107d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $135 107d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $148 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records