Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20d4…94dd crypto 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%86W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$73
other 9% −$61
culture 2% +$39
world 2% +$8
weather 2% −$27
tech 1% +$50
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 40% -17.4%
≤30d 30 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 40% -17.4%
≤90d 30 -12.4% -20.8% 47% 40% -17.4%
all 171 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 29% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 29% -11.2%
10% -16.9% 25% -19.7%
15% -24.9% 19% -27.5%
20% -32.3% 16% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses86 / 85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)171 / 173
History coverage171d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 69¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $116 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 28 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 28 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 16 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 16 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 16 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 07 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 07 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 07 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 06 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 06 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 06 $29 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 06 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 06 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 06 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 06 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 06 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 06 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 06 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 11m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 89¢ $84 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $3.71 · 730 history records