Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20d5…597a other 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-16%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$68
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$70
other 45% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -35.7%
≤30d 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -25.9%
≤90d 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -25.9%
all 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 56% -25.9%
10% -25.9% 33% -33.0%
15% -33.0% 22% -39.5%
20% -39.6% 0% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $34 −$23 -68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$3 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 +$5 +35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $56 −$20 -36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$4 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $55 +$8 +14%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 $0 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Scotland vs. Curaçao end in a draw? May 30 $4 −$2 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 87¢ $5 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $5 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $29 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $29 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $54 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $14 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $35 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $56 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $8 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $3 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 8d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 91¢ $63 10d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $55 10d
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records