Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

20
0x20da…8db8
politics · 124 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,240 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,255 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$430
Realized−$2,255
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,051
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $428 $430 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,831 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,444 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $825 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $1,162 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,082 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,608 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $597 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $622 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $706 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,590 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,776 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,907 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 01 $278 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 01 $402 +$1 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $3,113 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,604 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,439 −$2 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $1,451 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $2,774 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5,564 −$6 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,431 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $5,449 −$5 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,623 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $2,891 −$3 -0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 10 $1,528 −$1,528 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 08 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% −$60
other 36% +$152
sports 17% −$2,349
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% +$2
world 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 6h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 26h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 30h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $824 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $825 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $1,161 3d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,162 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $811 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $812 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $814 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $885 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $886 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $778 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $779 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $777 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $779 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $621 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $622 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $701 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $703 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -15.5% -23.5% 9% 1% -11.8%
all 123 -3.3% -12.5% 28% 8% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 8% -11.1%
10% -20.9% 8% -19.6%
15% -28.5% 7% -27.4%
20% -35.5% 6% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.74 · official $429.74 (match) · 385 history records