Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:29:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
20 0x20da…3f28 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,529 (+5%) realized +$2,137 · open +$392
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 32L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$581per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5,973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days+$706
14 days+$906
30 days+$2,567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$3,087
other 16% −$464
tech 9% +$642
sports 2% −$649
finance 1% +$82
crypto 1% +$92
economics 0% +$86
politics 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.1% -35.9% 44% 31% +0.6%
≤30d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 46% +6.7%
≤90d 67 -21.9% -29.3% 54% 40% -4.0%
all 70 -22.1% -29.5% 54% 39% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 39% -4.3%
10% -36.3% 27% -13.4%
15% -42.4% 13% -21.8%
20% -48.1% 10% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$124 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$5,973
Realized+$2,137
Unrealized+$392
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)70 / 83
History coverage100d
Avg bet$581
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 93¢ $1,000 $1,203 +$203 (+20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,040 $1,094 +$54 (+5%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $1,000 $997 −$3 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 89¢ $1,012 $978 −$34 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 92¢ $790 $925 +$135 (+17%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $500 $483 −$17 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 33¢ 57¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 75¢ 72¢ $93 $90 −$4 (-4%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $45 $28 −$17 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $102 +$306 +299%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,130 +$16 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $1,007 +$201 +20%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $293 +$83 +28%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,011 +$76 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,017 +$515 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $191 +$99 +52%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $1,003 +$137 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,006 +$64 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,400 +$173 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,542 +$825 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $399 +$484 +121%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $325 +$76 +23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 22 $252 +$101 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $1,110 +$343 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,325 +$108 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $4,244 −$1,593 -38%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $95 +$35 +37%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Christian" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "Muslim" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Farmer" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" or "Somalian" during King Charles Apr 30 $1 −$1 -96%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $216 +$3 +2%
Will Powell say "Middle East" during April press conference? Apr 30 $69 +$23 +33%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during April press conference? Apr 30 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $37 +$63 +170%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $860 −$860 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during King Charles vis Apr 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 29 $55 −$54 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $3,510 +$357 +10%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 26 $13 −$13 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 75¢ $94 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 33¢ $102 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $102 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $100 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY No 93¢ $1,043 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 24¢ $102 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $1,145 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 10¢ $19 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $200 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $200 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $1,000 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $293 5d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $504 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 83¢ $1,007 5d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 60¢ $66 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $289 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,972.83 · official $6,158.25 · 206 history records