Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

20 0x20dd…80cf tech 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$3 (+3%) realized +$4 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip

Net edge+53%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+53.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+69.6%	+53.4%	100%	100%	+53.4%
≤30d	1	+69.6%	+53.4%	100%	100%	+53.4%
≤90d	1	+69.6%	+53.4%	100%	100%	+53.4%
all	1	+69.6%	+53.4%	100%	100%	+53.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+53.4%	100%	+53.4%
10%	+38.7%	100%	+38.7%
15%	+25.3%	100%	+25.3%
20%	+13.0%	100%	+13.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +70% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +70% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$94

Realized+$4

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	No	83¢	82¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
WHOOP IPO before 2027?	No	77¢	76¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	53¢	51¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-3%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Jun 12	$5	+$4	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
WHOOP IPO before 2027?	BUY No	77¢	$20	1h
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	BUY No	53¢	$20	1h
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	BUY No	83¢	$50	1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	BUY No	58¢	$5	5d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.16 · official $94.16 (match) · 6 history records