Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
20 0x20e1…4e7f crypto 30 markets active 3h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$578 (-18%) realized −$578 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$236
sports 12% −$400
other 5% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +42.3% +28.8% 47% 40% -23.8%
≤30d 30 +42.3% +28.8% 47% 40% -23.8%
≤90d 30 +42.3% +28.8% 47% 40% -23.8%
all 30 +42.3% +28.8% 47% 40% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.8% 40% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here +16.4% 33% -31.1%
15% +5.2% 33% -37.7%
20% -5.1% 30% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$112 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $77 +$52 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $128 +$57 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$65 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$39 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $410 −$397 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$136 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $105 +$147 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$39 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$29 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $402 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $156 −$100 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$68 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$457 +1714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $407 −$400 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $185 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $70 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $241 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $252 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records