Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
20 0x20e2…b9a9 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+33%) realized +$106 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$14
14 days+$92
30 days+$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$74
sports 33% +$6
crypto 8% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +32.4% +19.8% 90% 80% +2.7%
≤30d 16 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 69% +26.5%
≤90d 16 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 69% +26.5%
all 16 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 69% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 69% +26.5%
10% -1.8% 38% +14.4%
15% -11.3% 38% +3.3%
20% -20.0% 19% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.3 per $1 lost it wins $8.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 41¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $13 −$11 -83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 19 $0 $0 +100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $68 +$14 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +138%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$74 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$5 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $79 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 5¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 12¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 23¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 24¢ $2 13h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 21¢ $1 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 12¢ $0 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 31h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 31h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 11¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $82 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $68 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 21¢ $2 5d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 24¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 24¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 37¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.13 · official $80.15 (match) · 47 history records